Portugal (@12.0) vs Italy (@1.005)
12-09-2019

Our Prediction:

Italy will win

Portugal – Italy Match Prediction | 12-09-2019 11:15

They have, however, scored in seven of these games, and Portugal have failed to score in just one of their 14 home games since they lifted that trophy in Paris. Portugal have kept just one clean sheet in their last six home matches, and Italy have conceded in eight of their ten away games since the end of Euro 2016. Indeed, these similar issues have seen both teams decline in defensive stability recently.

Giorgio Chiellini Set to win his 100th cap, as captain, and will want to mark the occasion with a clean sheet having helped Juventus keep plenty this season. Lorenzo Insigne The Napoli forward has been in the goals this season, with ten so far, including three in the Champions League. Leonardo Bonucci Alongside his fellow Juventus centre-back, the experienced defender will be key in Italys bid to nullify the Portuguese attacking threat.

Portugal host Italy in one of the most exciting high-profile clashes on Monday evening at Estadio da Luz. It will mark the UEFA Nations League debut for Selecao das Quinas who will be looking to get off to a victorious start and claim the very top of the standings after Italy and Poland drew 1-1 on the opening day at Stadio Renato DallAra.

Portugal have only one of their last five matches, but they have only lost one of those too - the defeat to Uruguay in the World Cup 2018 last 16. A late Iran equaliser, in a 1-1 draw, consigned Portugal to second place in the group, however, and they lost their last-16 match to Uruguay. Pepe scored Porugal's goal in a 2-1 defeat and scored again in the 1-1 draw with Croatia last time out. They started their campaign with a 3-3 draw with Spain thanks Cristiano Ronaldos hat-trick, and Ronaldo scored again in the win against Morocco.

Portugal vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips

In the last five games they played against each other, we saw under 2.5 goals, which confirms our previous prediction. In their previous ten meetings, the Scandinavians failed to record a win, the Azzuri had nine victories, while one match ended in a draw. H2H records are showing that you should back the visiting team to win the upcoming game.

Portugal, without Cristiano Ronaldo, were drawing with World Cup finalists Croatia and have now won just one of their last five games - a 1-0 defeat of Morocco at the World Cup. Nevertheless, with home advantage, Portugal can get a result. Expert Verdict: Neither Portugal nor Italy have been in particularly good form, with the Italians failing to impress in their draw with Poland last time out.

Italy gave up a lot of chances against Poland, and if Andre Silva - who scored a hat-trick on his La Liga debut last month - or alternative striking options are in clinical form, Portugal will score goals. If anyone can get the best out of Balotelli, it's his former club manager Mancini, but the likes of Andrea Belloti or Ciro Immobile will be stepping up this time. With home advantage too, it is easy to see why - even without Ronaldo - the European champions are favourites to move straight to the top of their UEFA Nations League group with a win against Italy. Cristiano Ronaldo's absence is undoubtedly a big loss, but without him the likes of Bernardo Silva can step up and prove Portuguese football has a future beyond their superstar forward. With both sides having drawn three of their last five matches, betting on the draw could be a sensible option - but those recent records do not tell the full story. For Italy, meanwhile, Roberto Mancini is still searching for his best XI and enigmatic Mario Balotelli did not help his case for a regular starting point much good with a frustrating performance against Poland. Nevertheless, with the experience of Pepe at the back and rising star Ruben Neves making things tick in midfield, Portugal have a strong core to their team.

In September, in the UEFA Nations League, they then won again by the same 1-0 scoreline Andre Silva the goalscorer this time. Having lost every single game between the two nations between 1980 and 2008, Portugal hit back to win a friendly in June 2015 as Eder scored the only goal of the game. Portugal have only won six of their previous 26 matches against Italy, with the Italians winning 18, but the last two matches have both gone Portugals way.

The Nice striker started again up front for Roberto Mancinis side as they drew with Poland on Friday, and with support from the wider Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi, they look to be a promising front line. The fact that only one of their midfielders has more than ten caps is a concern though, as is their continued reliance on the ageing Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci at the back.

Portugal Team News

In between, Italy beat Saudi Arabia 2-1 but lost 3-1 to France. It followed the same result against the Netherlands in their previous game, while they also drew 1-1 with Italy back in March. Three of Italy's last five matches have ended in 1-1 draws, including their draw with Poland last time out - Jorginho atoning for an earlier error with a penalty to earn Italy their point.